New Revenue? Bad Math.

The latest Yes on W mailer touts the “economic benefit for Pacifica” but the details presented there are wrong and misleading. There are 2 problems with the developer’s claim that Measure W would generate over $3 million in annual new tax revenue for the City.

First, the developer’s number is wrong. The figure is supposedly from the City’s Election Code 9212 report, but the report actually shows the following (p. 24):

Revenue Estimate

Saying that $2.46 million is over $3 million in new tax revenue is simply bad math.

Even the City’s estimate is optimistic. It assumes an average daily room rate (ADR) of $275 (p. 23), which is significantly more than the ADR of the Best Western Lighthouse ($198) and more than any other comparable hotel other than the Ritz-Carlton in Half Moon Bay (p. 163).

Also, the developer is proposing to pack 181 hotel rooms into a 7-story, 85-foot building, which is unlikely to be approved by either the City or the Coastal Commission. (The nearby Best Western is approximately 45 feet high.) A building sized to fit the Rockaway Beach area will bring in much less tax revenue.

Second, the more important problem with the developer’s marketing is that a full build-out of the Quarry is only one possible project consistent with Measure W. A project with only the 206 unit apartment complex is also consistent with Measure W. This was confirmed by the City in the same EC 9212 report (p. 37):

Question 17

(It doesn’t get any clearer than that.) Without the hotel/commercial, the estimated new revenue for the city is only $272,000, which barely pays for the City’s added costs.

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